张立荣在巴西智库IREE网站撰文：中国的农业经济和乡村振兴
数千年来中国一直是以种植业为主的农业国，基本上是“靠天吃饭”。虽然中国在十九世纪中叶开启了工业化进程，但到中华人民共和国1949年成立时，其农村人口仍占总人口的89%（2021年为36%）。新中国成立后优先发展重工业，为工业化积累资金，农业发展面临着资金匮乏和发展后劲不足问题。上世纪七十年代末中国实行改革开放政策四十年来，农村经济改革迈出了三大步：第一步，以家庭承包经营为核心，建立农村基本经济制度和市场机制，保障农民生产经营自主权；第二步，以农村税费改革为核心，统筹城乡发展，调整国民收入分配关系；第三步，实行农村综合改革，解决一些深层次问题。近十年来，政府持续加大强农惠农政策力度，建立健全城乡融合发展体制机制和政策体系，全面深化农村改革，稳步实施乡村振兴战略，完成了精准扶贫任务。
在过去七十多年中，中国已经发展成为世界工业制造业强国，工业产值占GDP约 27%，农业产值（包括农林牧渔产业的生产、加工、物流、营销、服务等全产业链）占比降至约16%。尽管如此，农村经济发展还是取得了巨大成就，农业生产的水平和质量有显著提高，农村的面貌有很大改观，农民的生活有明显改善，主要体现在以下方面。
粮食产量逐步稳定在较高水平。1949年中国粮食产量1.13亿吨，人均粮食产量209公斤，无法满足人们的温饱需求。上世纪50—70年代粮食生产有了一定发展。改革开放以来，建立和完善以家庭承包经营为基础、统分结合的双层经营体制，启动农产品流通体制改革，彻底取消农业税，建立农业支持保护制度，激发了农民的积极性，促进粮食产量快速增长。2018年粮食产量6.58亿吨，比1949年增长4.8倍；人均粮食产量472公斤，比1949年增长1.3倍。2021年粮食产量达到6.85亿吨。
在粮食产量提高的同时，农业实现了由单一以种植业为主的传统农业向农林牧渔业全面发展的农业转变。2018年农林牧渔业总产值按可比价格计算，比1952年增长17.2倍。从产值构成来看，1952年农业产值占农林牧渔四业产值的比重为85.9%， 2018年下降到57.1%，而林牧渔业分别上升到5.0%、26.6%、11.3%。
种植业生产由单一的粮食作物种植转变为粮食作物、经济作物和饲料作物的三元种植结构。畜牧业生产由单一的生猪饲养向猪、牛、羊、禽多品种饲养转变。2018年，猪肉产量占肉类总产量的62.7%，牛肉、羊肉和家禽的产量提高到7.5%、5.5%和23.1%。
绿色、优质、品牌农产品水平不断提高，化肥、农药施用量不断下降。秸秆综合利用率达到84%。近五年来，主要农作物良种覆盖率和主要农产品监测合格率持续保持在96%以上。
农业生产组织方式发生了重大变化，促进了生产效率的提高。2016年第三次全国农业普查结果显示，规模化耕地面积占实际耕地总面积的28.6%。规模化养猪业占62.9%，规模化家禽养殖占73.9%。加快推进农业规模化经营，不仅有利于稳定农业生产，提高劳动生产率，而且使农业更加集约化、专业化、组织化。
新型经营主体大量涌现，农民合作社、家庭农场、龙头企业等数量快速增加。新型经营主体和新型职业农民在应用新技术、推广新品种、开拓新市场方面发挥了重要作用，正在成为引领现代农业发展的主要力量。
农业新模式快速发展，拓展了农业多种功能。设施农业改变了农业生产的季节性。休闲农业和乡村旅游蓬勃发展，新冠疫情爆发前的2019年，休闲农业接待游客32亿人次，营业收入超过1310亿美元。大数据、物联网、云计算、移动互联网等新一代信息技术快速向农业农村领域延伸，农产品电商方兴未艾。
农田水利基本建设得到加强，防灾抗灾能力增强。新中国成立之初，农业基础非常薄弱。多年来，国家不断进行农业基础设施建设，提升了小型农田水利设施和农田灌溉条件。现在，集中连片、旱涝保收、节水高效、稳产高产、生态友好的高标准农田已占总耕地面积的三分之一以上。
20世纪50年代初，大多数农村地区依靠煤油灯照明，饮用水直接来自水井或河流。经过几十年的努力，农村电气化有条不紊地推进。农村用电量从1952年的5000万千瓦时增加到2021年的约1万亿千瓦时。农村饮水安全工程的实施大大改善了农村地区的饮水质量。公路和网络建设取得重大进展，农村公路总长度达到400多万公里。截至2019年，99.6%的乡镇和99.5%的行政村通了硬化路，99.1%的乡镇和96.5%的行政村通了客车。90%以上的村庄可以使用宽带互联网。
农业生产方式已从主要依靠人力和畜力转向机械作业。1952年中国的农业机械总功率只有18.4万千瓦，1978年为1.175亿千瓦，2021年增长至10.6亿千瓦。主要农作物的耕种和收获机械化率超过70%，主要粮食作物的机械化率超过80%。科学技术在农业生产中发挥着越来越重要的作用。
农村教育和文化活动迅速发展。70年前，全国的文盲率高达80%（2021年为2.67%），小学适龄儿童的净入学率只有20%。农村教育非常落后。几十年来，政府在发展战略中优先考虑教育，并逐步将农村义务教育纳入公共财政支持的范畴，免除学杂费，免费提供教科书。到2019年，中国92.7%的县实现了义务教育均衡发展，并建立了学生资助制度。更多的农村儿童享受到更好、更公平的教育。根据2016年农村人口普查，42.5%的农村居民具有初中学历，11.0%具有高中或中专学历，3.9%具有大专及以上学历。同期普查显示，96.8%的乡镇有图书馆和文化站，11.9%的乡镇有剧院和电影院。
医疗服务在不断改善。七十年前，农村地区缺医少药。经过几十年的艰辛努力，农村三级医疗卫生服务网络建设加快推进。在新型农村合作医疗制度下，门诊和住院费用的报销比例分别达到50%和75%左右。随着医疗服务的完善，农村居民的健康水平有了很大提高。农村孕产妇死亡率从50年代初的1500/10万下降到2018年的19.9/10万，农村婴儿死亡率从200‰下降到7.3‰。政府引入了多层次养老服务，逐步缓解了农村地区的“养老难“问题。中国城乡居民的平均预期寿命已从70年前的35岁提高到2021年的77.3岁。
农村居民的收入持续增长。改革开放前，农村就业主要是从事农业生产。此后，乡镇企业迅速发展，农村剩余劳动力转移到第二和第三产业。随着市场经济的发展，农村剩余劳动力进入城市就业，近年来农民工数量一直保持在2.8亿左右。随着农副产品交换条件的改善、农产品价格的上涨和政府对社会保障投入的增加，农村居民收入上升，城乡收入差距明显缩小。
贫困人口数量大大减少，绝对贫困得到消除。改革开放以来，中国开辟了一条具有中国特色的扶贫开发道路。按现行农村贫困标准（当年价）衡量，1978年中国农村贫困发生率为97.5%，农村贫困人口7.7亿。各级政府坚持开发式扶贫，把发展作为解决贫困问题的根本途径。他们将农村贫困人口脱贫的基本要求和核心指标规定为“两不愁”（不愁吃、不愁穿）和“三保障”（义务教育、基本医疗、住房安全有保障），以改善贫困地区的基本生产生活条件。2013年以来，各级政府更加重视扶贫开发工作，把精准扶贫作为基本方略。经过八年的不懈努力，到2020年底，在中国历史上第一次消除了绝对贫困。在中国目前的标准下（按购买力平价计算，每人每天的生活支出约为2美元），9899万农村人口摆脱了绝对贫困。此外，截至2020年底，全国贫困地区新建或改建公路110万公里，新建铁路3.5万公里。水利对贫困地区发展的支撑能力明显增强。98%以上的贫困村通了光纤和4G。基础设施的极大改善，使贫困地区与外界的人流、物流、信息流更加顺畅。
自1970年代以来，中国已使7.7亿农村贫困人口摆脱了贫困，超过世界上任何其他国家，并率先实现了联合国千年发展目标。根据世界银行的贫困标准，中国占同期全球脱贫人口的70%以上。按照世行发布的2022年贫困人口预计，中国按每人每天生活支出3.2美元标准贫困人口1100万，占比0.79%，按5.5美元标准贫困人口1.53亿，占比10.84%。
从上述情况可以看出，自1949年新中国成立以来，中国的农业、农村和农民面貌发生了历史性变化。但是，中国发展的不平衡和不充分仍在农村地区表现得最为突出，这也是中国坚持认为自己仍然是一个发展中国家的主要原因之一。仍需解决的主要问题有：农业生产成本高，价格低，比较效益差；集体化耕作率低，竞争力和抵御风险能力差；部分地区特别是中西部地区的农业和农村基础设施还比较落后；农业立体污染严重，农产品安全受到威胁；缺乏高素质的农业劳动力，农民不知道如何根据市场变化调整种植和养殖结构；农业综合服务体系不健全，无法推进现代农业发展；广大农村地区的农产品加工业落后，甚至没有加工业；农产品加工业与农业产值比为2.3∶1，远远低于发达国家3.5∶1的水平。
为进一步振兴中国农村经济，中国国家主席、中共中央总书记习近平在2017年10月提出了乡村振兴战略。他指出，农业农村农民问题是关系到国计民生的根本性问题。必须始终把解决好“三农”问题作为工作的重中之重。2018年初，中央颁布了关于实施乡村振兴战略的文件。同年9月，《乡村振兴战略规划（2018-2022年）》发布。这是一个按照产业兴旺、生态宜居、治理有效、生活富裕的要求，分阶段实施乡村振兴战略的规划。关于在2022年完成该《规划》的“意见“主要包括四个方面。一是稳定粮食生产，提高生产能力，持续推进高标准农田建设，深入实施种植业振兴行动，提高农机装备水平，保障种粮农民合理收益。二是产业发展要稳基础提效益，拓展农业多种功能、开发乡村多元价值，推动农村一二三产业融合发展。三是稳步推进农村建设，提高环境质量，加强管理和保护，促进乡村宜居宜业。四是要保持农民增收和减贫的良好势头不逆转。
翻译：程泽笠 核译：许馨匀
Zhang Lirong: China's Agroeconomy and Rural Revitalization
For thousands of years, China has been an agricultural country with planting as its main industry, basically relying on the weather for food. Although China began its industrialization process in the mid-19th century, by the time the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, its rural population still accounted for 89% of the total population (down to 36% in 2021). After the founding of the new China, priority was given to the heavy industry and funds accumulated for industrialization. Agriculture was faced with a lack of funds and insufficient development momentum. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy in late 1970s, three major strides have been made in rural economic reform. The first step is to establish a basic rural economic system and market mechanism with household contracted management as the core, so as to ensure farmers' autonomy in production and management. The second step is to take rural tax reform as the core, coordinate urban and rural development and adjust national income distribution. The third step is to implement comprehensive rural reform and solve some deep-seated problems. Over the past decade, the government has intensified policies bolstering agriculture and enriching farmers, established sound systems, mechanisms and policies for integrated urban-rural development, comprehensively deepened rural reform, steadily implemented the rural revitalization strategy and accomplished the targeted poverty alleviation.
Over the past seven decades and more, China has grown into a global industrial and manufacturing powerhouse, with industrial output accounting for about 27% of its GDP, while agricultural output (including the whole industrial chain of production, processing, logistics, marketing and services in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery) has dropped to about 16%. Nevertheless, remarkable achievements have been made in rural economic development. The level and quality of agricultural production, the environment of rural areas and the life of farmers have been significantly improved, which is reflected in the following aspects.
Grain output has gradually stabilized at a high level. In 1949, China's grain output was 113 million tons, with a per capita grain output of 209 kg, which could not meet people's food needs. Grain production made some progress during 1950s-1970s. Since the reform and opening up, a two-tier management system based on household contract has been created, the circulation system of agricultural products reformed, agricultural taxes completely abolished, and an agricultural support and protection system established, which has stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers and promoted a rapid growth of grain output. In 2018, the grain output was 658 million tons, 4.8 times that of 1949. The per capita grain output was 472 kg, 1.3 times that of 1949. Grain output reached 685 million tons in 2021.
While the grain output increases, agriculture has realized the transformation from traditional agriculture dominated by planting to an all-round development of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. In 2018, the total output value of the four sectors was calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 17.2 times over 1952. In terms of output value composition, agricultural output value accounted for 85.9% of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in 1952. In 2018, it dropped to 57.1% while the output value of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery rose to 5%, 26.6% and 11.3% respectively.
The production of planting industry has changed from a single planting of grain crops to a ternary planting structure of grain, economic and feed crops. Animal husbandry production has changed from a single pig production to multiple varieties of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry. In 2018, the output of pork accounted for 62.7% of the total output of meat, and the output of beef, mutton and poultry increased to 7.5%, 5.5% and 23.1%.
The level of green, high-quality and brand agricultural products has been continuously improved while application of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is declining. The comprehensive utilization rate of straw has reached 84%. The rate of improved varieties of major crops and the monitored qualification rate of major agricultural products remained above 96% in the past five years.
The mode of agricultural production has changed dramatically, boosting production efficiency. According to the results of the third National Agricultural Census in 2016, large-scale arable land area accounted for 28.6% of the total actual arable land area. Large-scale pig farming accounted for 62.9%, and large-scale poultry farming 73.9%. Accelerating the scaled agricultural operations not only helps stabilize agricultural production and raise labor productivity, but also makes agriculture more intensive, specialized and organized.
A large number of new business entities have emerged like farmers' cooperatives, family farms and leading enterprises. New business entities and new professional farmers have played an important role in application of new technologies, introduction of new varieties and promotion of new markets. It is becoming the main force leading the progress of modern agriculture.
The new agricultural model has developed rapidly and expanded various functions of agriculture. Facility agriculture has changed the seasonality of agricultural production. Leisure agriculture and rural tourism boomed. In 2019, before COVID-19 outbreak, leisure agriculture received 3.2 billion tourists, with a turnover of more than US$131 billion. New generation information technologies such as big data, internet of things, cloud computing and mobile internet have rapidly extended to agriculture and rural areas, and e-commerce of agricultural products is in the ascendant.
The construction of farmland and water conservancy has been strengthened and the ability to prevent and resist natural disasters enhanced. When the new China was established, the foundation of agriculture was very weak. Over the years the country has continued to carry out agricultural infrastructure construction, uplifting small-scale farmland water conservancy facilities and farmland irrigation conditions. Now the high-standard farmland which is concentrated, drought and flood resistant, with high and stable yield and eco-friendly, accounts for more than one third of the total arable land.
In the early 1950s, most rural areas relied on kerosene lamps for lighting and drinking water came directly from wells or rivers. After decades of efforts, rural electrification has advanced in an orderly manner. Rural electricity consumption increased from 50 million KWH in 1952 to about 1 trillion KWH in 2021. Implementation of the rural drinking water safety project has greatly improved the drinking water quality in rural areas. Significant progress has been made in road and network construction, with the total length of rural roads reaching more than 4 million kilometers. By 2019, 99.6% of townships and 99.5% of administrative villages have access to hardened roads, and 99.1% of townships and 96.5% of administrative villages have access to bus services. More than 90% of villages have access to broadband internet.
The mode of agricultural production has shifted from relying mainly on human and animal power to machinery. The total power of agricultural machinery in China was only 184,000 kw in 1952, 117.5 million kw in 1978 and 1.06 billion kw in 2021. The mechanization rate of cultivation and harvest of main crops exceeds 70%, and over 80% of main grain crops. Science and technology play an increasingly important role in agricultural production.
Rural education and cultural activities have developed rapidly. 70 years ago, the nation’s illiteracy rate was as high as 80% (2.67% in 2021) and the net enrollment rate of primary school-age children was only 20%. The rural education was very backward. For decades, the government has given priority to education in its development strategy, and gradually brought rural compulsory education into the scope of public financial support, where tuition and miscellaneous fees are exempted and textbooks are provided free of charge. By 2019, 92.7% of the counties in China had achieved a balanced development of compulsory education and established a student subsidy system. More rural children enjoy better and fairer education. According to the 2016 rural census, 42.5% of rural residents had a junior high school education, 11.0% had a senior high school or technical secondary school education, and 3.9% had a college or above education. The same census showed that 96.8% of townships had libraries and cultural centers, and 11.9% had theatres and cinemas.
The medical service is improving. Seventy years ago, rural areas were short of doctors and medicine. After decades of arduous efforts, the rural medical and health service network has accelerated. With the new rural cooperative medical care system, the reimbursement proportion of outpatient and inpatient expenses is about 50% and 75% respectively. With a better medical service, the health level of rural residents has greatly improved. The rural maternal mortality rate has decreased from 1500 / 100,000 in early 1950s to 19.9/100,000 in 2018, and the rural infant mortality rate has decreased from 200 ‰ to 7.3 ‰. A multi-tiered elderly care services has been introduced and gradually eased the difficulty of providing elderly care in rural areas. The average life expectancy of urban and rural residents in China has risen from 35 years 70 years ago to 77.3 years in 2021.
Rural residents’ income continued to grow. Before the reform and opening up, rural employment was mainly engaged in agricultural production. Thereafter, township enterprises developed rapidly and the rural surplus labor force transferred to the secondary and tertiary industries. With the adoption of market economy, surplus rural labor force went to cities for employment and the number of migrant workers has remained at about 280 million in recent years. As the exchange conditions of agricultural and sideline products have been improving, the price of agricultural products and government's investment in social security increasing, rural residents’ income has gone up and the income gap between urban and rural areas narrowed significantly.
The number of poor people has been greatly reduced and absolute poverty eliminated. Since the reform and opening up, China has blazed a path of poverty alleviation and development with Chinese characteristics. Measured by the current rural poverty standard (annual price), the incidence of poverty in rural areas was 97.5% in 1978, and 770 million people lived in poverty in rural areas. Governments at all levels have adhered to development-oriented poverty alleviation and taken development as the fundamental approach to poverty reduction. They stipulated the basic requirements and core indicators for the rural poor to get rid of poverty as the "two no worries" (no worries about adequate food and clothing) and the "three guarantees" (compulsory education, basic medical treatment and basic housing safety) so as to improve the basic production and living conditions in poor areas. Since 2013, governments at all levels have given greater priority to poverty alleviation and development, taking targeted poverty alleviation as its key strategy. After eight years of unremitting endeavor, by the end of 2020, China eradicated absolute poverty for the first time in its history. Under China's current standard (daily living expenditure at about US$2.0 per person at PPP), 98.99 million rural people were lifted out of absolute poverty. In addition, by the end of 2020, 1.1 million kilometers of newly built or reconstructed roads and 35,000 kilometers of new railways had been built in poor areas across the country. The ability of water conservancy to support the development of poor areas has been significantly enhanced. More than 98% of poor villages have access to optical fiber and 4G. The great improvement of infrastructure has smoothen the flow of people, logistics and information between poverty-stricken areas and the outside world.
Since 1970s, China has lifted 770 million rural poor out of poverty, more than any other country in the world, and the first to achieve the UN Millennium Development Goals. According to the World Bank's poverty standard, China accounted for over 70% of the global population lifted out of poverty during the same period. According to World Bank’s estimate of the poor population in 2022, China has 11 million poor people living on US$3.20 per person per day, accounting for 0.79% of its total population, and 153 million poor people living on US$5.50, accounting for 10.84%.
From the abovementioned you can see that since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China's agriculture, rural areas and farmers have undergone historic changes. However, the imbalance and inadequacy of China's development is most prominent in the rural areas, which is one of the main reasons why China insists that it is still a developing country. The main problems still to be addressed are: High agricultural production cost, low price and poor benefit. The collectivized tillage rate is low, and the competitiveness and ability to resist risks are poor. Agriculture and rural infrastructure are still backward in some areas, especially in the central and western regions. Three kinds of dimensional agricultural pollution are serious, and the safety of agricultural products is threatened. Lack of high-quality agricultural labor force, farmers do not know how to adjust the planting and breeding structure according to market changes. The comprehensive agricultural services is not sound enough to promote a modern agriculture. The processing industry of agricultural products in the vast rural areas is backward or even no processing industry. The ratio of agricultural product processing industry to agriculture is 2.3∶1, which is far lower than the level of 3.5∶1 in developed countries.
In order to boost China's rural economy, Xi Jinping, China’s President and General Secretary of the Communist Party proposed the rural revitalization strategy in October 2017. He pointed out that issues concerning agriculture, rural areas and farmers are fundamental for the national economy and people's livelihood. We must always make solving the related problems the top priority. In early 2018, the central government promulgated a directive on an overall planning for rural revitalization. In September of the same year, the Strategic Plan for Rural Revitalization (2018-2022) was issued. It is a phased plan for implementing the rural revitalization strategy in accordance with the requirements of thriving industries, livable ecosystems, effective governance and prosperity. The Directive on accomplishing the Plan in 2022 focuses on four aspects. The first is to stabilize grain production, increase production capacity, continue to promote the construction of high-standard farmland, revitalize the seed industry, improve agricultural machinery and equipment and ensure the reasonable income of grain farmers. Second, industrial development should stabilize the foundation and improve efficiency, expand agricultural functions, develop rural multiple values and promote the integrated development of rural primary, secondary and tertiary industries. Third, rural construction should be carried out at a steady pace to improve the quality, management and protection of environment, and benefit rural livability and employment. Fourth, the good momentum of increasing farmers' income and poverty reduction should be maintained.
(ZHANG Lirong: Secretary-General of CHINA FORUM, CISS, Tsinghua University)
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